IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.0	#241
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.2	#271
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.4	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.8%	11.0%	5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	52.2%	58.3%	29.6%
.500 or above in Conference	63.9%	67.4%	50.6%
Conference Champion	10.0%	11.2%	5.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%

First Four	3.6%	3.6%	3.4%
First Round	8.0%	9.2%	3.7%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 5	12 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	318	Florida A&M	W	72-64	79%
Nov 27, 2020	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	62-68	28%
Dec 02, 2020	212	Robert Morris	L	64-66	44%
Dec 12, 2020	43	@ Miami (FL)	L	61-79	5%
Dec 16, 2020	171	Florida International	L	73-74	45%
Dec 22, 2020	203	Georgia Southern	W	72-71	52%
Dec 31, 2020	277	North Alabama	W	72-67	65%
Jan 02, 2021	277	North Alabama	W	72-67	66%
Jan 08, 2021	147	@ Liberty	L	55-64	22%
Jan 09, 2021	147	@ Liberty	L	55-64	22%
Jan 14, 2021	292	Bellarmine	W	62-57	68%
Jan 16, 2021	292	Bellarmine	W	62-57	68%
Jan 21, 2021	170	@ Lipscomb	L	66-73	26%
Jan 23, 2021	170	@ Lipscomb	L	66-73	27%
Feb 04, 2021	250	Stetson	W	66-62	62%
Feb 06, 2021	250	Stetson	W	66-62	61%
Feb 12, 2021	342	@ Kennesaw St.	W	71-62	76%
Feb 13, 2021	342	@ Kennesaw St.	W	71-62	76%
Feb 18, 2021	297	Jacksonville	W	69-63	68%
Feb 20, 2021	297	Jacksonville	W	69-63	68%
Feb 26, 2021	218	@ North Florida	L	71-75	37%
Feb 27, 2021	218	@ North Florida	L	71-75	37%
Projected Record						11 - 11	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	1.1	2.6	3.1	2.1	0.8	0.2		10.0	1st
2nd										0.3	2.6	4.9	4.4	1.3	0.2				13.8	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	3.7	6.6	3.7	0.8	0.0					15.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	4.3	6.6	3.1	0.3	0.0						14.9	4th
5th						0.0	0.9	4.7	6.1	2.2	0.2								14.1	5th
6th					0.1	1.1	4.2	4.8	1.7	0.1									11.9	6th
7th			0.0	0.2	1.3	3.8	3.6	1.1	0.1										10.1	7th
8th		0.0	0.5	1.6	2.5	2.0	0.5	0.0											7.2	8th
9th	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.1													2.6	9th
10th																				10th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.4	2.4	4.3	7.0	9.2	11.3	12.7	13.0	12.5	10.0	7.8	4.5	2.3	0.8	0.2			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
15-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
14-2	90.0%	2.1		1.7	0.4
13-3	69.6%	3.1		2.0	1.1	0.1
12-4	33.5%	2.6		1.0	1.2	0.4	0.0
11-5	11.0%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	10.0%	10.0		5.7	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		43.3%	43.3%		13.0										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-1	0.8%		37.5%	37.5%		13.6									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.5
14-2	2.3%		36.7%	36.7%		14.2													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.4
13-3	4.5%		26.6%	26.6%		14.6														0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	3.3
12-4	7.8%		22.6%	22.6%		15.1														0.0	0.4	0.7	0.6	6.1
11-5	10.0%		17.4%	17.4%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	8.3
10-6	12.5%		12.9%	12.9%		15.8															0.0	0.3	1.3	10.9
9-7	13.0%		7.5%	7.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.9	12.1
8-8	12.7%		5.2%	5.2%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.6	12.0
7-9	11.3%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																	0.4	10.9
6-10	9.2%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	9.0
5-11	7.0%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	6.9
4-12	4.3%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
3-13	2.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
2-14	1.4%																							1.4
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	15.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.3	2.4	5.5	90.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%